Are We Alone?

A new study published last June by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler, and Toby Ord claims to dissolve the long standing Fermi paradox. The paradox, named after the gifted physicist Enrico Fermi, stems from an apparent conflict between the lack of evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) and the large number of planets in our galaxy estimated to offer suitable environments for the development of life. Typically, estimates for the number of intelligent civilizations are calculated using Drake-like equations, which multiply the estimated number of earth-like planets in the galaxy by various other terms representing the odds of intelligent life emerging. Since earth is still the only known planet in the universe harboring intelligent life (and some people even question that), as one might expect, estimates for these terms vary widely, representing the enormous uncertainty in them. Usually, “best guess” values are substituted for these terms, but as the authors of the study point out, this implicitly ignores their uncertainty. Instead, they produced probability distributions for each term and multiplied these together in order to generate a probabilistic view of the existence of intelligent life in the universe. They came to the shocking conclusion that not only is there a high probability that we are alone in the galaxy, but also that we are likely alone in the observable universe as well. If correct, this certainly dissolves the Fermi paradox.

Feeling Lonely
I don’t want to believe that we are alone. Nevertheless, as the philosopher Mick Jagger points out, “You don’t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you might just find, you get what you need.” To this end, I was looking for holes in the authors’ argument. The authors were quite thorough, however. They evaluated their own work in several different ways. Based on various considerations, they adjusted median values and uncertainties for most of the terms in the Drake equation. Their findings persisted as long as they preserved the wild uncertainty, some 200 orders of magnitude, that life would spontaneously develop on any earth-like planet. Ah-ha! I felt like I had found a flaw in their argument. It is true that the odds of life spontaneously appearing on any particular planet are astronomically small and uncertain. For instance, there are more ways that the basic building blocks of a cell can be arranged than there are atoms in the universe! As Fred Hoyle famously observed, “The chance that higher life forms might have emerged [from random configurations of non-living compounds] is comparable to the chance that a tornado sweeping through a junkyard might assemble a Boeing 747 from the materials therein.” This does not mean that he believed in some divine creation of life. He didn’t.

Take It To Vegas
Fred Hoyle believed that life on earth originated from space–that simple cellular organisms were already present in the matter of space. This theory, called panspermia (which sounds like the name of a mile-high club), suggests that life spreads through the universe like seeds on the wind. This means that life need merely evolve once, instead of countless times on individual planets. Therefore, even though the odds are minuscule, given the vastness of space and the sheer number of suitable sites, life could have emerged in one supremely conditioned spot and spread from there. This theory holds tremendous appeal for those, such as myself, who disdain loneliness.

Let me demonstrate. Emerging life is like playing roulette. You place bets and numbers are randomly selected by physical forces. Imagine that the numbers (0 to 36) on a roulette wheel represent amino acids in a protein sequence. Suppose that 8-10-11-12-2-1-21-18-10-30-24 represents a useful protein. In actuality, most useful proteins are much longer than this, but let’s discuss a simplified example. The odds of hitting this sequence are 1 in 177,917,621,779,460,413. That’s 1 in 177 thousand-trillion. Impossible, right? Well, a guy did it here. (Don’t watch unless you can tolerate profanity.) He more than doubled his position. The only reason he didn’t more than a thousand-trillion times his position is that he made a lot of other no-hit bets during the streak. But here’s the thing: emerging life is actually better than playing roulette because none of the losses carry over. You can lose a billion times, but for life, it only takes one win. A bad side bet doesn’t diminish the success of a winning streak.

We Hit The Jackpot!!!
The fact that you and I are here is proof that, no matter how unlikely it was, the right numbers hit. I’m rather inclined to think that they hit elsewhere. The oldest life on earth is estimated to have appeared 4 billion years ago; the earth itself is 4.5 billions years old. This means that life emerged on earth almost immediately after it cooled to suitable temperatures. It’s possible that earth really beat the rest of the universe to the punch, but I think it’s more likely that spores embedded in meteors made their way to earth from other more distant and more suitable environments.

“Where Are They?”
Enrico Fermi asked, “Where are they?” Why is it so difficult to detect other civilizations or to confirm extraterrestrial visitors to our own planet? That was in 1950. Still, nearly seventy years later, we’re looking up into the stars and asking the same question. Additional research should significantly reduce the uncertainties in the terms of the Drake equation, most likely improving the chances of having siblings/cousins in the universe, but this may take so long as to give ample time for fledgling civilizations to develop into observable civilizations. If it’s true that we are the big brothers of the observable universe, my guess is that we will likely nurture and protect these developing civilizations. After all, by that time, great effort would have been expended to find them. Some people have grown so cynical as to think that we would only exploit other civilizations. While I can’t guarantee they’re wrong, I can absolutely see a trend in humanity toward kindness and compassion. I do not believe that we are alone. It may take thousands of years for signals to reach us from other worlds in our galaxy, but one day we’re going to get lucky and find that we have family out there. A great reunion that will be.

Ariel Hammon
Author of JACK